Sunday, December 30, 2007

5-Way-Tie...with Paul not far behind?

The latest Rasmussen national poll puts John McCain at 17% (the first time he has been at the top in recent memory), Romney and Huckabee with 16%, Giuliani right behind with 15%, Thompson at 12%, and Paul with a steady 7%. The poll also shows 13% undecided, enough to put any single candidate with a significant lead over the others.

At this point, anyone can win. The chances of each candidate winning, however, are slightly different, but with each candidate remaining plausible. Data from RasmussenMarkets.com suggest that Giuliani has a 29.6 % chance of winning the Republican nomination, Mitt Romney 24.5 %, John McCain 20.0 %, Mike Huckabee 12.4 %, and Fred Thompson 3.5 %. However, Rasmussen states, these are likely to change by the outcome of the Iowa Caucuses and New Hampshire primaries.

If Romney were to win both states, this would probably put him as the leader of the Republican party's nomination. But, with Huckabee possibly taking Iowa and McCain possibly taking New Hampshire, this could mean the end to his candidacy.

However, Romney is the leader in New Hampshire with a few percentage points to spare, and is now dead even with Huckabee. Huckabee seems to be dipping slightly, and if this were to continue, Romney could win. The Rasmussen Markets currently suggest that Huckabee has a 49.5 % chance to win in Iowa while Romney is at 51.6 % [not equal to 100% because of slight error, I assume]. Iowa is 50/50 - a coin toss would be a comparable indicator for both Romney's and Huckabee's victory. [1]

Further information on the plausibility of major candidates, from both the Republican and Democratic party, in early primary states can be found here.

Friday, December 28, 2007

Impact of Illegal Aliens

Social and Economic Impact of Illegal Aliens (Only In Los Angeles County)

1. 40% of all workers in L.A. County (10.2 million people) are working for cash and not paying taxes. This is because they are predominantly illegally immigrants working without a green card.

2. 95% of all arrest warrants for murder in Los Angeles are for illegal aliens.

3. 75% of the people on the most wanted list in Los Angeles are illegal aliens.

4. Over 2/3 of all births in Los Angeles County are to illegal alien Mexicans, whose births are paid for by taxpayers.

5. Nearly 35% of all inmates in California detention centers are Mexican nationals here illegally.

6. The FBI reports half of all gang members in Los Angeles are most likely illegal aliens from south of the border.

7. Nearly 60% of all occupants of HUD [Housing and Urban Development] properties are illegal.

8. 21 radio stations in L.A. are Spanish speaking

9. Less than 2% of illegal aliens are picking our crops, but 29% are on welfare

10. 29% of inmates in federal prison are illegal aliens

All information was found in the Los Angeles Times, by no means a conservative (or even a conservative-to-moderate) newspaper.

Thursday, December 27, 2007

A Sobered America

The past three months have seen an odd turn in the presidential primary process in both parties — a turn away from the key issues confronting the United States and toward emotional and social vapor. The success of the surge in Iraq, coupled with the bizarre “we’re safe” reading of the National Intelligence Estimate on Iran, drained some of the passion from the anti-war fervor in the Democratic primary electorate and from the hawkish fervor of the Republican primary electorate. In their place came the Christian identity-politics rise of Mike Huckabee on the Republican side and the “we need a nice new politics” rise of Barack Obama on the Democratic side. Republicans squabbled about sanctuary cities and sanctuary mansions. Democrats squabbled about how many uninsured there would be left if their various health-care plans were imposed on the country.

The horrifying assassination of Benazir Bhutto in Pakistan this morning comes only one week before the Iowa caucuses and 12 days before New Hampshire. It is a sobering and frightening reminder of the challenges and threats and dangers posed to the United States by radical Islam, the nature of the struggle being waged against the effort to extend democratic freedoms in the Muslim world, and the awful possibility of a nuclear Pakistan overrun by Islamofascists. This is what the next president will be compelled by circumstance to spend a plurality of his or her time on. This is what really matters, not the cross Mike Huckabee lit up behind his head in his Christmas ad.

American politics would dearly love to take a holiday from history, just as it did in the 1990s. But our enemies are not going to allow us to do so. The murder of Bhutto moves foreign policy, the war on terror, and the threat of Islamofascism back into the center of the 2008 campaign. How candidates respond to it, and issues like it that will come up in the next 10 months, will determine whether they are fit for the presidency. [1]

From the Authors

To All Our Democrat Friends:

Please accept with no obligation, implied or implicit, our best wishes
for an environmentally conscious, socially responsible, low-stress,
non-addictive, gender-neutral celebration of the winter solstice
holiday, practiced within the most enjoyable traditions of the religious
persuasion of your choice, or secular practices of your choice, with
respect for the religious/secular persuasion and/or traditions of
others, or their choice not to practice religious or secular traditions
at all. We also wish you a fiscally successful, personally fulfilling and
medically uncomplicated recognition of the onset of the generally
accepted calendar year 2008, but not without due respect for the
calendars of choice of other cultures whose contributions to society
have helped make America great. Not to imply that America is necessarily
greater than any other country nor the only America in the Western
Hemisphere. Also, this wish is made without regard to the race, creed,
color, age, physical ability, religious faith or sexual preference of
the wishee.

To All Our Republican Friends:

Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!

Bhutto Assassination

Benazir Bhutto, probably Pakistan's best hope for stability, was assassinated today (well, actually yesterday, but the International Date Line screws with everything). Bhutto was shot in the chest and head, reported many media sources. [1]

I need to practice the typical American hand-wringing at this point. How is Pakistan ever going to go anywhere with political leaders getting blown up? This is a tragedy, but I think it shows why Iraq and Afghanistan are having such a rough time. The U.S. needs to buckle down if we are going to get anything done over there. It is going to be tough, but if we do manage two stable governments, the effects would be hugely positive for the region.

Why Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson Hurt Blacks

From just listening to a speech or an interview by Jesse Jackson or Al Sharpton, one would think that blacks as a whole are degraded and stomped upon by all, but especially whites and Jews. You would think that Hispanics are virtually the same race as blacks, and that illegal immigration is OK -- after all, it's just a few hard workers seeking a better life in the land of plenty.

Unfortunately, the efforts of Jackson and Sharpton do not help blacks, as a group, better themselves, nor are they driven out of good-will. Sharpton has a history of inciting racial violence in New York, often blaming Jews for the poverty that existed in black neighborhoods. He was responsible for a riot that killed a Jewish man, as well as the burning of a Jewish business which resulted in the deaths of seven people, as well as the arson. He used Jews as scapegoats, and came to power as a result, which is oddly reminiscent of another historical figure. . .

Jesse Jackson takes pride in his anti-Semitic comments and has told Jews, "You are much too sensitive." That sounds a little out of place, but his greatest fault came during the trial for the Duke lacrosse players accused of raping a black girl. He gave her a scholarship and didn't apologize for comments he made, even after the players were acquitted. When Tookey Williams was executed, he came to show support. He, of course, didn't even know the name of the victims.

These two men use the poverty of the blacks to maintain power. If blacks became successful, then they would lose their status. No one needs help if he's making money. That is why Sharpton and Jackson try and blame the powers-that-be for the black man's plight. If you're down and out, wouldn't you want it to be someone else's fault, and have them pick you back up? Because of this, they ask for reparations and special privileges. Blacks who know what is going on, such as Larry Elder, ask for education and a stronger sense of family in the black community.

Another area that Jackson and Sharpton stray in is that of illegal immigration. They support amnesty for illegals and ally with themselves with Hispanic leaders. They do nothing to stop the ethnic cleansing occurring in LA where Hispanic gangs are wiping out black neighborhoods, then moving in. They haven't condemned or even recognized this, and it just goes to show how much they really care for blacks.

Wednesday, December 26, 2007

Liberals Like Segregation, Discrimination

Slavery - evil
Segregation - immoral
Jim Crow Laws - atrocious
Racism - loathsome

With that apparently necessary disclaimer, I can move forward.

Jesse Jackson, "Reverend" Al Sharpton, and other modern, leftist, black activists believe we are still living in the 1950s, where racism is the mainstream and where segregation thrives. These supposedly "modern revolutionaries" would like us to believe whites are still lynching blacks by the masses in the South, that most whites are inherently racist, that blacks still suffer from massive, conspiratorial racism, and the American people's tax dollars should fix it.

The Orange County Register recently revealed the facts concerning violent hate crimes in America - against whites. According to the 2004 FBI National Crime Victimization Survey, in most instances of interracial crimes, the victim is white, and the perpetrator is black. In the case of interracial murder for 2004, where the race of victim and perpetrator is known, more than twice as many whites were murdered by a black than cases of a white murdering a black.

Cannot we recognize that we are in 2008, not 1958? Blacks and whites have moved on. However, cultural segregation has not.

For example, the very existence of the BET (Black Entertainment Television) is racist. Should your skin color determine your choice of television? The channel has been criticized by members of the black community who feel that the channel perpetuates harmful black stereotypes and has even been called Black Exploitation Television [1]. (I want a WET (White Entertainment Television))

Signs of political correctness in everyday life that are significantly harmful, continue to be espoused as "cultural sensitivity." The politically correct use of the term “African-American” sickens me, as it should any unprejudiced American. Blacks have been in America for as long as whites, yet a hyphen is still required. Are blacks not American enough? Can only whites be truly and simply American? For the politically correct (and and unintentionally racist), I suppose so.

Treating blacks and whites as unequal has become a goal of the Left. Affirmative Action has repeatedly been exposed as more harmful than helpful to blacks. The notion that blacks are too stupid to get into college without the generous help of guilty, liberal whites only confirms their own prejudice. I believe blacks are smart enough to get into college; I believe blacks are equal to whites, and should be accepted as equals into colleges and universities. I'd prefer not to demean an entire race by saying, “You’re too stupid to get into college by yourself, so here’s the extra help.” Numerous studies have shown that enormous amounts of blacks accepted into colleges due to affirmative action eventually drop out of college at a much higher rate than their black counterparts, that were accepted based on performance alone. Let us not push discrimination as the norm when it comes to college applications.

Conservative values such as a structured family with two parents, a competitive work ethic, and a constant endeavor for a decent education is exactly what inner-city blacks in America need. The lack of education perpetuates illiteracy and a fraudulent education from the public schools promotes ignorance, but what could fix this? Walter Williams, a black columnist for the Orange County Register, wrote a wonderful piece on education and the NAACP (I want a NAAWP!):

[T]he Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, a black liberal-to-moderate Washington-based think-tank, reported that 88 percent of blacks favored educational choice plans. A Gallup Poll found 72 percent of blacks support school choice. The NAACP, acting as handmaidens for teachers' unions, is solidly against school vouchers. [T]he once-proud and useful NAACP has outlived that usefulness and has in some instances become an impediment to black progress.

Rampant crime in the ghettos of America could be solved by being tough on crime - a conservative doctrine. Why can’t there be a Rudy Giuliani of the American ghettos? "If white people became angels tomorrow, it would do nothing to solve problems that can only be solved by blacks,” Williams proclaims.

These “race hustlers” such as Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton hinder progress and the “advancement of colored people.” But as Williams notes, there is hope. Recently there has been a sharp decline in finances for the NAACP. "The civil rights struggle is over and won."

Monday, December 24, 2007

Republicans - Happiness and Generosity

Are Republicans happier than Democrats and Independents?

A recent Gallup Poll found this likely to be true. Republicans are significantly more likely than Democrats or independents to rate their mental health as excellent, according to data from the last four November Gallup Health and Healthcare polls.















This could easily be attributed to many socioeconomic factors, but for the most part, these variables were controlled. Analysis of the relationship between party identification and self-reported excellent mental health within various categories of age, gender, church attendance, income, education, and other variables shows that the basic pattern persists regardless of these characteristics. [1]

The reason the relationship exists between being a Republican and more positive mental health is unknown, and one cannot say whether something about being a Republican causes a person to be more mentally healthy, or whether something about being mentally healthy causes a person to choose to become a Republican (or whether some third variable is responsible for causing both to be parallel). [2]

One may interpret this correlation to mean that the general Republican outlook on life is more positive or that the Democratic outlook on life is simply more negative.

(Maybe this is why Republicans are so ardently opposed to socialized Healthcare and Democrats are so supportive - Democrats need it for their mental health).

Democrats wishing to raise taxes for social welfare could be associated with their lower levels of mental health. The feeling of giving is always a good one - when it is others' money, of course.

In Who Really Cares: The Surprising Truth About Compassionate Conservatism (Basic Books), Arthur C. Brooks finds that religious conservatives are far more charitable than secular liberals, and that those who support the idea that government should redistribute income are among the least likely to dig into their own wallets to help others. [3]

Don't be too quick to assume conservative generosity is only for Church related charities, either. Brooks found that conservatives were more likely to give to a wide-range of charities, not necessarily religious.

In the book, he cites extensive data analysis to demonstrate that values advocated by conservatives -- from church attendance and two-parent families to the Protestant work ethic and a distaste for government-funded social services -- make conservatives more generous than liberals. [4]

So, conservatives are mentally healthier and more generous. The myth of liberal generosity and conservative greed has been debunked - along with liberal happiness and conservative depression.

The implications? None. Expect this to go widely unrecognized.

Thursday, December 20, 2007

Those Who Can't Do, Teach

America is known as a dismal failure when it comes to public education. The Left, made up of teacher-backed politicians, teachers' unions, and the supposedly more-generous-than-you liberals, would have you believe this is caused by a lack of funding.

Translation: let us blindly throw more money at a situation that the entire United States Treasury could not solve. In a recent article, Walter E. Williams, a syndicated columnist for the Orange County Register, seems to expose the explanation for our embarrassing American school system.

In 2004, the U.S. spent about $9,938 per secondary-school student. More money might explain why Swiss and Norwegian students do better than ours because they, respectively, spent $12,176 and $11,109 per student. But what about Finland ($7,441) and South Korea ($6,761), which scored first and second in math literacy?

He continues by saying the Slovak Republic ($2,744) and Hungary ($3,692) both have higher math and science literacy than America's, along with numerous other nations. So, money isn't the problem - but what is?

The problem is the overall quality of people teaching our children. Students who have chosen education as their major have the lowest SAT scores of any major. Students who have graduated with an education degree earn lower scores than any other major on graduate school admission tests. Schools of education, either graduate or under-graduate, represent the academic slums of most any university.

I must agree that Barack Obama's recently proposed "$18 billion increase in federal education" is simply "the typical [liberal] knee-jerk response."

Perhaps, as a nation, we must seriously consider vouchers - and the possible elimination of Schools of Education altogether.

Wednesday, December 19, 2007

Rally

The supporters of Dr. Corbett held a rally today at Capistrano Valley High School. Organizers said some 250 people came out, with home-made signs and shirts. There were, of course, the anti-Corbett people holding a counter-protest, but they were definitely shown up by the mass of support.

The entry to Capo High, as the students call it, was covered by about 75 alumni from Corbett's many years as a teacher (19 going on 20), as well as the students. The students were surprisingly organized. A number of groups had taken white T-shirts and scrawled slogans such as "Free Corbett" across the front. The students carried poster boards that would otherwise have been used for projects, but instead had scribbled phrases and pictures on them.

The anti-Corbetts had the nice, professional posters. They went down to the street and protested, but there were only 15 or so. The Orange County Register had an article, and I found out that some of the anti-Corbett protesters were Farnan's family and home-schooled friends!!! I cannot believe that they had the nerve to come out and protest actual students sticking with their teacher.

New Author

We got a new author, Republitarian. He will be posting regularly (I hope). Welcome!

Tuesday, December 18, 2007

Romney Rising

Apparently, Romney has caught up to Huckabee in Iowa. That's what the latest poll here says. If Romney can take Iowa, a tough fight, and New Hampshire, a not-so-tough fight, that should lend some more weight to his campaign. At least among those I've talked to, Romney is though of as the Mormon who can't because of the Evangelicals who won't. It looks like Romney could really jump in the polls if he takes a state like Iowa, with a relatively large population of Evangelicals.

This could put a little wind in Romney's sails and convince some to come over to his side. I predict that if Romney wins both New Hampshire and Iowa, and possibly if he only wins one, he will jump to first in the national polls and finally pass Giuliani. This could cause a Romney win in '08.

Horserace '08

I can't believe the race this time around. Hillary Clinton, of Hillary-Care fame, is the front runner for the Democrats, and not by a little bit. Last I checked, she was up 18 points nationally over Obama, yet still wins by the smallest margin over every Republican in the polls. Just for that, I hope she takes the nomination, but I don't want to see her actually win nation-wide.

For the Republicans, the best candidate is Mitt Romney. He has the experience, after running the bluest state in the Union out of a huge deficit and into the black. He completely turned the Salt Lake City Olympics of 2002 around from a loss into a huge profit. This is the guy to handle the country after the fiscal disaster of Bush.

Another issue where Romney is in the right is illegal immigration. He has the right position, namely stop up the borders and prevent the unmonitored influx of who-knows-what, and has the right solution -- he wants to build the border fence as well as go after employers. He doesn't want to waste time and money on a solution that won't work, like trying to deport the estimated 12 million illegal aliens. He wants to make it harder to get in and harder to stay. He will take away jobs by using a workable social security database. Romney should win, and the polls are beginning to turn around, but religion could kill him.

Monday, December 17, 2007

Global Warming

For those who think man is the largest contributor to global warming, I ask, "What is the largest (percentage wise) greenhouse gas?" Answer: dihydrogen monoxide, otherwise known as water. The largest contributor? The sun. In the last 60 years, Earth's temperatures have mirrored temperatures on the sun (proportionally, of course). Do a little research, and you find that the sun is the global warming fiend (which, by the way, economists think will help the Earth economy), not humans. Interesting.

Dr. Corbett

At a high school in my area, an AP European History teacher is being sued. He is being sued over some statements that he made in the class. They include phrases such as, "When you put on your Jesus glasses, you can't see the truth," and other similar statements. A kid named Chad Farnan is sueing because he says that these outbursts offended him. However, in a radio interview, the kid didn't even know which church he went to or what his religious sect was called. He only knew that he was "Christian," but could not pronounce "non-denominational." This sophmore claims to be "very devout," but doesn't know what he's devoted to!!!

Meanwhile, a teacher with a life, family, and steady job is under a lot of stress because he must deal with the possibility that all that may be taken away from him. Dr. James Corbett, the teacher, teaches an advanced course with a very high pass rate. The principal, Tom Ressler, said that Dr. Corbett has a pass rate of 2/3 on the AP exam, which is higher than the national average. This teacher obviously knows his stuff, and complaints have been made in the past, so this teaching style has been in use -- and working -- for a while.

First Post

Well, this is kind of exciting for me. I just started this blog, and now I've decided to post this post about . . . nothing. Oh well. Really, I am just trying to figure out how this all works.