The latest Rasmussen national poll puts John McCain at 17% (the first time he has been at the top in recent memory), Romney and Huckabee with 16%, Giuliani right behind with 15%, Thompson at 12%, and Paul with a steady 7%. The poll also shows 13% undecided, enough to put any single candidate with a significant lead over the others.
At this point, anyone can win. The chances of each candidate winning, however, are slightly different, but with each candidate remaining plausible. Data from RasmussenMarkets.com suggest that Giuliani has a 29.6 % chance of winning the Republican nomination, Mitt Romney 24.5 %, John McCain 20.0 %, Mike Huckabee 12.4 %, and Fred Thompson 3.5 %. However, Rasmussen states, these are likely to change by the outcome of the Iowa Caucuses and New Hampshire primaries.
If Romney were to win both states, this would probably put him as the leader of the Republican party's nomination. But, with Huckabee possibly taking Iowa and McCain possibly taking New Hampshire, this could mean the end to his candidacy.
However, Romney is the leader in New Hampshire with a few percentage points to spare, and is now dead even with Huckabee. Huckabee seems to be dipping slightly, and if this were to continue, Romney could win. The Rasmussen Markets currently suggest that Huckabee has a 49.5 % chance to win in Iowa while Romney is at 51.6 % [not equal to 100% because of slight error, I assume]. Iowa is 50/50 - a coin toss would be a comparable indicator for both Romney's and Huckabee's victory. [1]
Further information on the plausibility of major candidates, from both the Republican and Democratic party, in early primary states can be found here.
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