Iowa Caucus

Today is the Iowa Caucus - the day the citizens of Iowa decide their party's nominee. For the Democrats, the results will be very close. There is a three-way virtual tie between Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and John Edwards. Obama is ahead of Clinton by a few points, who is ahead of Edwards by a few points as well, but nothing large enough to determine a winner. The media say that if Obama wins, this could legitimize his possible presidency and put him in competition with Clinton. If this were to happen, many Edwards supporters would become either Clinton or Obama supporters, but most likely Obama supporters. If Edwards loses, his candidacy is over; what little chance Edwards has in winning will be determined today. If Edwards were to drop out, Obama may be in striking distance of Clinton. However, if Clinton wins, her nomination is nearly guaranteed.

For the Republicans, the only two real possibilities are Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney. Huckabee is a couple percentage points ahead of Romney in the polls, but again, nothing large enough to determine a definitive winner. If Huckabee wins, he may go on to win several other states as well, but I could not see him being the Republican nominee (however, this may be simply my bias against him). If Romney were to win, I believe he would have a great chance at the nomination (although, again, my personal bias for him).

Although it is very hard to make a valid prediction because things are so close, my predictions are as follows:

For the Republicans, Mitt Romney will win. I base this not on the fact that he is my personal favorite, but that the people who support him are more likely to vote. Every poll/survey/study will show that the poor (the rural) are less likely to vote than the rich (the urban). Mitt Romney's base is more wealthy and more urban than Huckabee's, whose base is made up of the rural social conservatives. Although Romney is a couple percentage points behind Huckabee, it may be just enough to put him over the edge, or at least I hope.

For the Democrats, my predictions are similar. I do not believe that Obama has a solid, supportive base. Obama's percentage points (slightly ahead of Clinton and Edwards), are made up largely of the youth - whom we all know have a dismal voter turnout. I think either Clinton or Edwards will win. However, most people know that a vote for Edwards is a vote wasted, and people consider "electability" when it comes down to it. This, I believe, will propel Clinton into winning the caucus.

Considering the above, I predict Romney for the Republicans and definitely not Edwards for the Democrats. Either Obama or Clinton will win, but if I must choose one, I would guess Clinton. Keep in mind, I'm no political analyst and these are just my guesses, with little validity to them. Let's see if I hit the target, or if I was dead wrong.

However, looking at the polls alone, Huckabee and Obama will win.